UCF Mathematics Colloquium by Linda Allen (Texas Tech University): Seasonal Variability on Disease Outbreaks in Stochastic Multi-patch Epidemic Models

Friday, October 30, 2020 3 p.m. to 4 p.m.

It is our pleasure to announce that Dr. Linda Allen (Texas Tech University) will give a mathematics colloquium on Friday October 30th, 3pm-4pm. Below please find the detailed information regarding her talk and a short bio-sketch. Please join us if you can. 


UCF Mathematics Colloquium
Time: Oct 30, 2020 03:00 PM Eastern Time
Join Zoom Meeting via https://ucf.zoom.us/j/97982702645 (Zoom Meeting ID: 979 8270 2645)


Linda Allen

Paul Whitfield Horn Distinguished Professor

Department of Mathematics and Statistics

Texas Tech University

Title: Seasonal Variability on Disease Outbreaks in Stochastic Multi-patch Epidemic Models


Factors such as seasonality and spatial connectivity affect the spread of aninfectious disease. Accounting for these factors in infectious disease models providesuseful information on the times and locations of greatest risk for disease outbreaks. Inthis investigation, stochastic multi-patch epidemic models are formulated with seasonaland demographic variability. The stochastic models are used to investigate theprobability of a disease outbreak when infected individuals are introduced into oneor more of the patches. Seasonal variation is included through periodic transmissionand dispersal rates. Multitype branching process approximation and application of thebackward Kolmogorov differential equation lead to an estimate for the probability ofa disease outbreak. This estimate is also periodic and depends on the time, the location,and the number of initial infected individuals introduced into the patch systemas well as the magnitude of the transmission and dispersal rates and the connectivitybetween patches. Examples are given for seasonal transmission and dispersal in twoand three patches. Application of our modeling framework and methods, coupled with information about travel patterns and seasonal trends on specificdiseases (such as seasonal influenza, avian influenza, dengue, malaria, cholera, Ebola, and coronavirus diseases), provide insight about the times and locations fortravel restrictions.


Dr. Linda Allen received her PhD in 1981 at University of Tennessee, Knoxville under the supervision of Thomas Hallam. She became a faculty member at Texas Tech University since 1982, and later has received Paul Whitfield Horn Distinguished Professorship in 2010. Dr. Allen has published 120+ papers, 3 books, and delivered 100+ invited talks in conferences. She has been elected as a SIAM Fellow in 2016, delivered the AWM-SIAM Sonia Kovalevsky lecture at ICIAM-2015, and will deliver an AMS-MAA invited lecture in the upcoming Joint Mathematics Meetings (2021). 

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Zoom: https://ucf.zoom.us/j/97982702645: Zoom Meeting ID: 979 8270 2645 [ View Website ]



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