Thesis Proposal: Global Spatiotemporal Modeling of the Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production

Human use of the environment has resulted in the depletion of biodiversity and natural resources and has restructured landscapes. Social, economic, and political anthropogenic activities have in particular affected terrestrial vegetation. Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) is a measure of the human exploitation of plant resources by the removal and alteration of vegetation from Earth’s surface through harvesting and land use change activities. HANPP data is available globally, allowing for spatially explicit analyses of socioeconomic factors affecting ecosystems and plant resource availability. Models for HANPP have been limited spatially (e.g., a country) or temporally (e.g., a year). The proposed research objective is to construct a global, spatiotemporal model of national-level HANPP for 1960 to 2010 at decadal intervals using a Bayesian approach. Population, urbanization, GDP, greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs), agricultural activity, and colonialism will be explored as correlates of HANPP. Preliminary models best predicted HANPP with population, urbanization, GDP, and GGEs. Only urbanization showed a negative relationship with HANPP. Population and GGEs were major correlates of HANPP. The best-fit models will be used to project HANPP into the year 2050 by decade for each country using projections of model correlates. This research will improve our understanding of the interactions between socioeconomic factors and human terrestrial environmental impacts.